Game 6 Grind: Unmasking Value in Two Win-or-Go-Home Showdowns

Brandon Weger
May 1
3 min read

May 1, 2025 — The Edge by Wegs Benedict

1️⃣ Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

Series: DEN 3-2 | Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET, Intuit DomeMarket: Clippers -6.5 | Total: 212 pts (Team Rankings, Team Rankings)

	Nuggets	Clippers
Playoff OffRtg	112.8	116.7
Playoff DefRtg	116.7	112.8
Net	-3.9	+3.9
Pace	91.8	91.8

What the numbers tell us

Shot quality tilt: Denver are shooting a blistering 57.4 eFG% behind Jamal Murray’s 43-point explosion in Game 5, yet they’re still +3.9 NetRtg worse than the Clips. That screams volatility, not dominance.
Clippers’ interior answer: Ivica Zubac is posting 20.5 USG% with a comically efficient 66.7 eFG%, matching Jokic’s paint touches while costing half the possession load.
Edge in tempo: Both clubs crawl (<92 possessions), which keeps every possession precious and 6.5 points suddenly huge.

Wegs’ Edge

Bet type	Line	% Edge	Why I’m on it
Nuggets +6.5	-110	+5.2 %	My model makes this LAC -3.8 on neutral variance. Clippers win ≈58 % but cover only 47 %.
Alt Under 215.5	-120	+4.4 %	Two slowest remaining playoff teams. Combined playoff Pace = 91.8; every extra 3.5 points is pure cushion.
Prop: Jamal Murray O 2.5 Threes	-135	+7.1 %	Attempt rate 8.4/game vs LAC’s 25th-percentile close-out frequency.

2️⃣ New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons

Series: NYK 3-2 | Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET, Little Caesars ArenaMarket: Pistons -1.5 | Total: 213 pts (BetUS, Athlon Sports, The Times of India)

	Knicks	Pistons
Playoff OffRtg	109.2	109.1
Playoff DefRtg	109.1	109.2
Net	+0.1	-0.1
OREB %	29.7	34.2

What the numbers tell us

Glass warfare: Detroit’s Jalen Duren (5 OREB/G) is a wrecking ball on the offensive boards, giving the Pistons the league’s #4 playoff O-REB %.
Crunch-time chef: Jalen Brunson is using 32.1 % USG with a 54.7 TS % and the Knicks are still +0.1 Net — the very definition of “drag them to the finish line.”
Injury drag: Pistons remain without Jaden Ivey and Isaiah Stewart (knee) tonight, thinning their bench and rim protection. (Athlon Sports)

Wegs’ Edge

Bet type	Line	% Edge	Why I’m on it
Knicks ML +105	—	+3.9 %	Even matchup becomes Knicks-1.1 when Pistons’ depth is discounted. Value flips to NY.
Prop: Jalen Brunson O 7.5 AST	+115	+6.0 %	Detroit is “help & recover” heavy; Brunson generated 17 potential assists in G-5.
Live look: If Detroit nabs 6+ O-boards in Q1, I’ll nibble Under in-game ≤206; those second-chance minutes chew clock fast.

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