Launch Codes Activated: Judge, Rice & Shohei Top Wegs’ HR Power Index for a May 5 Bomb Fest

Brandon Weger
May 5
3 min read

Cue the subway-rumble bass line, #WildcardCrew: the Bronx is basically a fireworks testing range tonight, and we’re the guys with the lighter. Aaron Judge is locked-in like he’s trying to dent the subway façade, Shohei is coiling torque like a katana, and Atlanta’s humidity is about to turn Truist Park into a launch pad. If you can’t smell the gunpowder floating above the batter’s box, check your pulse—because our Wegs HR Power Index just cranked the danger meter to DEFCON “oh-my-poor-baseballs.”

Quick-Fire Slate Snapshot — Top 10 Power Index Nukes

Rank	Player (Team)	Match-up	Adj Prob	Power Index
1	Aaron Judge (NYY)	SDP @ NYY	0.767	34.6
2	Ben Rice (NYY)	SDP @ NYY	0.645	17.3
3	Shohei Ohtani (LAD)	LAD @ MIA	0.546	8.9
4	Austin Riley (ATL)	CIN @ ATL	0.541	8.6
5	Oneil Cruz (PIT)	PIT @ BOS	0.509	6.7
6	Matt Olson (ATL)	CIN @ ATL	0.500	6.3
7	Cal Raleigh (SEA)	SEA @ DET	0.494	6.0
8	Elly De La Cruz (CIN)	CIN @ ATL	0.480	5.3
9	Fernando Tatís Jr. (SDP)	SDP @ NYY	0.431	3.5
10	Kyle Manzardo (CLE)	CLE @ BOS	0.427	3.3

Power Index = (Adj Prob⁴ × 100). Anything 5+ is live ammo; 15+ is “hide the children.”

Edge Meter Confidence Bar

Judge        ██████████████████  95%
Rice         ████████████        87%
Ohtani       █████████           80%
Riley        ████████            78%
Cruz         ███████             74%

Wegs Bet Originals

Judge HR (+285) – Short porch, right-to-left breeze, and Seth Lugo’s meh fastball spin. Ball-retrieval crews, stretch.
Rice HR & NYY ML SGP (+600) – If the books keep sleeping on the kid, we’ll gladly caffeine-slap them awake.
Ohtani HR + 2+ RBI (+475) – Jazz can pimp a solo shot; Shohei’s about to write kanji across the façade.
Riley HR (+310) – Great American Ball Park north? Yes please. Curveball-heavy lefty? Even better.

Wildcard Crew Parlay Lab

Judge HR + Ohtani HR + Olson HRPayout: +5400 — one-quarter unit max. Sweat it loud, screenshot your ticket, and tag the #WildcardCrew when it lands.

Bankroll Tempo Check

Standard Crew pace (1 Unit = 1% roll)

HR Prop Singles: 0.5 U each
Parlay Chaos: 0.25 U cap
Live-bet bullet: 0.25 U in reserve for sudden pitching changes or surprise weather flips

Stay nimble; a healthy roll means you’re still swinging tomorrow.

Degenerate’s Corner

Judge 2+ HRs (+1300) – He’s done it in May before against sinker-high righties. Wind creeping out at 8 mph nudges the odds just enough to sip.
Schneemann HR (+600) – 70 PAs, 92nd-perc max EV, Boston’s “Pesky?” Chef’s kiss.

Quarter-unit fun money—nothing you’d lose sleep (or the rent) over.

Hidden-Gem Scud Missiles

Player	Team	PA	Adj Prob	Power Index	Why It’s Sneaky
David Schneemann	CLE	70	0.425	3.3	Switch-bat, 92nd-perc barrel, Fenway RF bullpen 302 ft away.
Jonathan Polanco	SEA	87	0.421	3.1	Pull-happy lefty vs heater-leaker righty in homer-greedy T-Mobile.
Sean Murphy	ATL	79	0.365	1.8	Thunderous pull power meets sticky Georgia air.
Jackson Merrill	SDP	41	0.357	1.6	Rookie bat + Yankee short porch = stealth souvenir call.

All gems live at plus-400 or longer—quarter-unit sprinkles only.

Model Mechanics

Wegs HR Prob fuses Barrel Rate z-score, Pitcher HR Contact z-score, and Park HR Factor into one tasty cocktail.
Adj Prob reins in tiny samples with the PA/(PA + 50) dampener.
Power Index throws the mic through the amplifier: (Adj Prob⁴ × 100). It crushes empty noise and spotlights real thunder.
Weather? Not yet. Add ±5–10 % once game-time wind and temp lock.

Responsible Edge

Big swings, clean head. Cap parlays, track every wager, and leave tomorrow’s rent in tomorrow’s account. A hot streak feels sweeter when your ledger stays black.

Final Whistle

Tonight’s slate is primed for moonshots—Judge staring down the porch, Shohei warming up the laser show, and Atlanta’s bats baking in southern humidity. Load the slip, breathe out slow, and listen for that sweet crack that hushes the crowd.

Bet Big. Stay Wild. See you on the other side of the fence, #WildcardCrew.