Rails, Tales & Outside Fails: Wegs Benedict Deconstructs the 2025 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
- Brandon Weger
- May 2
- 4 min read
Before you even sniff the mint julep foam, here’s the quick-hit rundown: the 151st Kentucky Derby breaks from the gate at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, with Bob Baffert back in the barn, Journalism parked in the coveted eight-hole at a slick 7-2, and two-dozen storylines jammed tighter than the infield rail. Post 5 is still the historical honey-pot, Post 17 is the graveyard of dreams, and the new single 20-stall gate keeps the herd from fanning out like a busted parlay. Ready to fire? Let’s roll. (Axios, NBC Connecticut, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby)
Cold-Open Hook
Horse-players love tradition; the #WildcardCrew loves edges. Post positions may look like random bingo balls, but gate geometry, break speed, and herd traffic make or break your ticket. Get this intel loaded before you smash “Confirm Bet.” (Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby)
Quick-Fire Slate Snapshot
Post | Horse | Morning-Line Odds* | Jockey | Trainer | Wegs Edge Note |
1 | Citizen Bull | 18-1 | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | Rail, but the new gate gives him a hair more breathing room. (The Courier-Journal) |
2 | Neoequos | 57-1 | Flavien Prat | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Longshot specialist + ice-cold price. (The Courier-Journal) |
3 | Final Gambit | 18-1 | Luan Machado | Brad Cox | Cox’s inside draws have hit the board 3 of last 5 years. (The Courier-Journal) |
4 | Rodriguez | — Scratched | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | Toss from multis; AE Baeza floats in. (The Courier-Journal) |
5 | American Promise | 12-1 | Nik Juarez | D. Wayne Lukas | Sits in the most prolific gate (10 winners). (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby) |
6 | Admire Daytona | 36-1 | Christophe Lemaire | Yukihiro Kato | Japan angle, but wide run into first turn. (The Courier-Journal) |
7 | Luxor Cafe | 13-1 | João Moreira | Noriyuki Hori | Tactical speed + soft draw behind Journalism. (The Courier-Journal) |
8 | Journalism | 7-2 fav | Umberto Rispoli | Michael McCarthy | Clean launch pad; 3-race win streak screams legit. (The Courier-Journal, Reuters) |
9 | Burnham Square | 17-1 | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Ian Wilkes | Wants pace meltdown; draws just outside fave. (The Courier-Journal) |
10 | Grande | 18-1 | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | Johnny V + middle gate magic (PP 10 owns nine wins). (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby) |
11 | Flying Mohawk | 34-1 | Joe Ramos | Whit Beckman | Needs trip of a lifetime. (The Courier-Journal) |
12 | East Avenue | 30-1 | Manny Franco | Brendan Walsh | Underrated closer, but traffic looms. (The Courier-Journal) |
13 | Publisher | 27-1 | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Steve Asmussen | Sneaky if pace nukes; Irad tax included. (The Courier-Journal) |
14 | Tiztastic | 18-1 | Joel Rosario | Steve Asmussen | Post 14 hasn’t won since ’61—buyer beware. (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby) |
15 | Render Judgment | 12-1 | Julien Leparoux | Kenny McPeek | Late add—may benefit from fresher legs. (The Courier-Journal) |
16 | Coal Battle | 27-1 | Juan Vargas | Lonnie Briley | Deep outside, moderate gate stat. (The Courier-Journal) |
17 | Sandman | 5-1 | José Ortiz | Mark Casse | Zero wins from Gate 17 ever. Fade or faith. (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby) |
18 | Sovereignty | 10-1 | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | Florida Derby runner-up; tempo dependent. (The Courier-Journal) |
19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | Jareth Loveberry | Ethan West | Wide trip, bomber only. (The Courier-Journal) |
20 | Owen Almighty | 41-1 | Javier Castellano | Brian Lynch | Post 20 owns a sneaky 10.5 % win clip since ’30. (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby) |
* Odds: latest TwinSpires board Thursday evening. (TwinSpires)
Edge Meter – Historical Gate Heat
Post 5 has delivered a record ten roses and sports the highest in-the-money rate overall. (Kentucky Derby)
Post 10 sits one back with nine wins and a fat 29.5% % ITM. (Kentucky Derby)
Post 17? Zip. Forty-plus swings, zero connections popping the champagne. Proceed accordingly. (Kentucky Derby)
Post 20 now shares the second-best win percentage (10.5 %) after the new contiguous gate nixed the auxiliary gap. (Kentucky Derby)
Betting Angles & Wegs Originals
Key the Eight – Journalism’s gate and tactical foot give him a trip advantage; anchor him in exactas, then spread for chaos underneath. (Reuters)
Fade the Seventeen – Sandman is talented, but the gate history is a black-hole of equity; hedge with a small saver only if you’re spooked. (Kentucky Derby)
Under-Radar Bomb – Citizen Bull off the rail with Baffert in redemption mode screams overlay if he breaks clean. (Reuters)
Exacta Ice-Cream Scoop – 8 / 1-5-7-10-12-18 (and flip it) aims to capture both the chalk and a mid-price spike.
WildcardCrew Parlay Lab – Pair Journalism to Over 1.5 three-point makes by Steph in the nightcap NBA playoff for a playful (+155) double. (Check house rules, degenerates.)
Watch & Wager Logistics
Embedded Resource
Full Churchill Downs Post-Position Report (PDF)
<iframe src="https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/03/Post-Positions-Kentucky-Derby-2025.pdf" width="100%" height="600"></iframe>If your browser blocks the frame, grab the PDF directly and bookmark it. (Kentucky Derby)
Final Whistle
Lines move, stories spin, but gate math never lies. Use the data, temper the bourbon, and remember: Bet Big. Stay Wild.
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