Rails, Tales & Outside Fails: Wegs Benedict Deconstructs the 2025 Kentucky Derby Post Positions

Before you even sniff the mint julep foam, here’s the quick-hit rundown: the 151st Kentucky Derby breaks from the gate at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, with Bob Baffert back in the barn, Journalism parked in the coveted eight-hole at a slick 7-2, and two-dozen storylines jammed tighter than the infield rail. Post 5 is still the historical honey-pot, Post 17 is the graveyard of dreams, and the new single 20-stall gate keeps the herd from fanning out like a busted parlay. Ready to fire? Let’s roll. (Axios, NBC Connecticut, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby)

Cold-Open Hook

Horse-players love tradition; the #WildcardCrew loves edges. Post positions may look like random bingo balls, but gate geometry, break speed, and herd traffic make or break your ticket. Get this intel loaded before you smash “Confirm Bet.” (Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby)

Quick-Fire Slate Snapshot

Post	Horse	Morning-Line Odds*	Jockey	Trainer	Wegs Edge Note
1	Citizen Bull	18-1	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	Rail, but the new gate gives him a hair more breathing room. (The Courier-Journal)
2	Neoequos	57-1	Flavien Prat	Saffie Joseph Jr.	Longshot specialist + ice-cold price. (The Courier-Journal)
3	Final Gambit	18-1	Luan Machado	Brad Cox	Cox’s inside draws have hit the board 3 of last 5 years. (The Courier-Journal)
4	Rodriguez	— Scratched	Mike Smith	Bob Baffert	Toss from multis; AE Baeza floats in. (The Courier-Journal)
5	American Promise	12-1	Nik Juarez	D. Wayne Lukas	Sits in the most prolific gate (10 winners). (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby)
6	Admire Daytona	36-1	Christophe Lemaire	Yukihiro Kato	Japan angle, but wide run into first turn. (The Courier-Journal)
7	Luxor Cafe	13-1	João Moreira	Noriyuki Hori	Tactical speed + soft draw behind Journalism. (The Courier-Journal)
8	Journalism	7-2 fav	Umberto Rispoli	Michael McCarthy	Clean launch pad; 3-race win streak screams legit. (The Courier-Journal, Reuters)
9	Burnham Square	17-1	Brian Hernandez Jr.	Ian Wilkes	Wants pace meltdown; draws just outside fave. (The Courier-Journal)
10	Grande	18-1	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	Johnny V + middle gate magic (PP 10 owns nine wins). (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby)
11	Flying Mohawk	34-1	Joe Ramos	Whit Beckman	Needs trip of a lifetime. (The Courier-Journal)
12	East Avenue	30-1	Manny Franco	Brendan Walsh	Underrated closer, but traffic looms. (The Courier-Journal)
13	Publisher	27-1	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Steve Asmussen	Sneaky if pace nukes; Irad tax included. (The Courier-Journal)
14	Tiztastic	18-1	Joel Rosario	Steve Asmussen	Post 14 hasn’t won since ’61—buyer beware. (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby)
15	Render Judgment	12-1	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	Late add—may benefit from fresher legs. (The Courier-Journal)
16	Coal Battle	27-1	Juan Vargas	Lonnie Briley	Deep outside, moderate gate stat. (The Courier-Journal)
17	Sandman	5-1	José Ortiz	Mark Casse	Zero wins from Gate 17 ever. Fade or faith. (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby)
18	Sovereignty	10-1	Junior Alvarado	Bill Mott	Florida Derby runner-up; tempo dependent. (The Courier-Journal)
19	Chunk of Gold	30-1	Jareth Loveberry	Ethan West	Wide trip, bomber only. (The Courier-Journal)
20	Owen Almighty	41-1	Javier Castellano	Brian Lynch	Post 20 owns a sneaky 10.5 % win clip since ’30. (The Courier-Journal, Kentucky Derby)

* Odds: latest TwinSpires board Thursday evening. (TwinSpires)

Edge Meter – Historical Gate Heat

• Post 5 has delivered a record ten roses and sports the highest in-the-money rate overall. (Kentucky Derby)

• Post 10 sits one back with nine wins and a fat 29.5% % ITM. (Kentucky Derby)

• Post 17? Zip. Forty-plus swings, zero connections popping the champagne. Proceed accordingly. (Kentucky Derby)

• Post 20 now shares the second-best win percentage (10.5 %) after the new contiguous gate nixed the auxiliary gap. (Kentucky Derby)

Betting Angles & Wegs Originals

1. Key the Eight – Journalism’s gate and tactical foot give him a trip advantage; anchor him in exactas, then spread for chaos underneath. (Reuters)

2. Fade the Seventeen – Sandman is talented, but the gate history is a black-hole of equity; hedge with a small saver only if you’re spooked. (Kentucky Derby)

3. Under-Radar Bomb – Citizen Bull off the rail with Baffert in redemption mode screams overlay if he breaks clean. (Reuters)

4. Exacta Ice-Cream Scoop – 8 / 1-5-7-10-12-18 (and flip it) aims to capture both the chalk and a mid-price spike.

5. WildcardCrew Parlay Lab – Pair Journalism to Over 1.5 three-point makes by Steph in the nightcap NBA playoff for a playful (+155) double. (Check house rules, degenerates.)

Watch & Wager Logistics

• NBC main feed and Peacock stream beginning 2:30 p.m. ET, post time 6:57. (Axios)

• Fixed-odds books outside the USA are dealing tighter spreads; inside the States you’re on the parimutuel tote—watch those flashes.

• Need a printable cheat sheet? USA TODAY’s got you covered. (USA TODAY)

Embedded Resource

Full Churchill Downs Post-Position Report (PDF)

<iframe src="https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/03/Post-Positions-Kentucky-Derby-2025.pdf" width="100%" height="600"></iframe>

If your browser blocks the frame, grab the PDF directly and bookmark it. (Kentucky Derby)

Final Whistle

Lines move, stories spin, but gate math never lies. Use the data, temper the bourbon, and remember: Bet Big. Stay Wild.