Sunday Heat Check: Wegs Benedict’s Playoff Card & Profit Blueprint

Brandon Weger
Apr 27
2 min read

(Odds frozen at 7:30 a.m. ET – if the line wiggles more than a point, I’ll blow the air-horn on Twitter @WegsBets.)

Clash	Wegs Line	Book Line	Value Δ	Ticket	Wegs Total	O/U	Tempo Lean
Knicks @ Pistons	NY -0.9	DET -2	+2.9	Knicks +2	221.0	217	Over
Lakers @ Wolves	MIN -8.0	MIN -3.5	-4.5 (vs LA)	Wolves -3.5	203.6	209.5	Under
Celtics @ Magic	BOS -7.3	BOS -7	+0.3	No bet (price is right)	195.3	197.5	Light Under
Pacers @ Bucks	IND -2.6	MIL -4.5	+7.1	Pacers +4.5 ★	223.6	226.5	Under

🔬 Inside the Laboratory

Possession Blender – Each squad’s playoff Off/Def Rating whipped with average series Pace to bottle expected points.
Edge Detector – Every stray point versus Vegas ≈ 4.5 % swing on cover probability.
Total Thermometer – 100-possession σ ≈ 18 points tells me when the steam blows the lid off—or keeps it bolted shut.

🎯 Why We Fire

Knicks +2 & Over 217 – Brunson’s pick-and-roll is Grand Theft Motor City (126 ORTG last two). Add New York’s klepto back-court (9.2 % live-ball steals) and we’ve got extra trips to the buffet.
Wolves -3.5 & Under 209.5 – Gobert & McDaniels have the Lakers crawling at a snailish 96.5 pace; Ant-Man is feasting on Reeves like late-night Taco Bell (1.18 PPP ISO). Covers in 65 % of sims; total crashes ≤ 209 in 63 %.
Pacers +4.5 & ML Sprinkle (+170) – Indy’s five-out chaos yanks Big-Brook into open water. Giannis’ thumbscrewed jumper? Looks like a rental car without the insurance. I make Haliburton slim chalk—books gift me dog money. Bark, baby.
Celtics/Magic Under – Two trench-warfare defenses, pace south of 89. If Jrue’s hammy squeaks, Boston slows to dial-up modem speed.

💎 Prop Nuggets – Half-Unit Popcorn

Player	Market	Wegs Fair	Rationale
Ant Edwards O 28.5 pts	-110	-136	Nobody in purple can survive his first step. Usage kissing 30 %.
Rudy Gobert O 12.5 reb	-105	-140	LA dead last in playoff D-glass; Rudy’s arms are airport runways.
Giannis U 51.5 PR	-115	-135	Sore thumb + Indy brick-wall paint = fewer bully-ball buckets.

(DraftKings 8:05 a.m. ET – pull the eject lever if juice > -125.)

🎚️ Bankroll Tempo Check

1 u Pacers +4.50.8 u Wolves -3.50.6 u Knicks +20.4 u combined totals0.25 u each prop

Total splash: 3.55 units – smack-dab at 5 % of the war chest. Your unit ≠ my unit—size responsibly.

🚦 Responsible Edge

Gambling is theater, not therapy. Dictate your limits before the bourbon sweats through the glass. If tilt starts whispering sweet nothings, hand him a wrong number: 1-800-GAMBLER.