The Edge — Friday-Night Classic: Rockets @ Warriors, Game 6

Brandon Weger
May 2
3 min read

Western Conf. 1st Rd • GSW leads 3-2 • Tip: 9 p.m. ET, Chase Center

The Bay lights are flickering, the Chase Center bass is thumping, and somewhere in the visitors’ locker room Alperen Şengün is Googling “how to box out Kevon Looney in a riot.” Welcome to Friday night on The Edge—where Steph Curry treats fourth quarters like happy hour, Rockets fans pray for splash-proof ponchos, and your parlay is one bad beat away from becoming a ghost story you’ll tell the grandkids. Buckle up, bankroll warriors—it’s about to get loud, weird, and wildly profitable.

1. Betting Board

Market	Number	What it Implies
Spread	Warriors -5	~61 % win prob. for GSW
Total	203.5	Pace-adjusted score-line ≈ 102-101
Series	GSW -550 / HOU +400	84 % chance Warriors advance

Lines as posted May 2.

2. How the Series Has Played Out

Stat (Playoffs)	Warriors	Rockets
Record	3-2	2-3
OffRtg	111.4	112.7
DefRtg	112.7	111.4
NetRtg	–1.3	+1.3
Pace	93.0	93.0

Take-away: Houston have quietly been the more efficient club, but Golden State have banked the 3-2 lead by winning the possession game (fewer turnovers, +2.7 ORB%).

3. Key Match-ups & Tactical Angles

Match-up	Why It Matters
Alperen Şengün vs. Kevon Looney	Şengün’s +10.9 net rating & 12.6 REB/G give HOU its interior heartbeat. Looney’s ability to keep him off the glass decides second-chance math.
Jimmy Butler on Jalen Green	When guarded by Butler, Green’s FG% drops from 46 → 36 %. If Butler wins this duel again, HOU lose their north-south creator.
Three-Point Volume	Series 3-pt makes: GSW 12.0 • HOU 15.4. Curry (60.4 eFG%) has carried GSW’s attack, but Rockets have six players shooting ≥38 % from deep.

Expect Steve Kerr to dust off more zone to run HOU’s shooters off the line, forcing half-court post touches to Şengün where help can come.

4. Pace & Total Cheat-Sheet

Average combined score in the five games: 219.4.Game 6 total (203.5) bakes in both teams’ deliberate 93-possession rhythm. That’s 8 possessions under league average, but each club has cleared 103 points in 4 of 5 contests. Unless officials swallow whistles, the Over still shows a 4-point cushion versus the series mean.

5. Prop Edges I’m Playing

Prop	Line	Edge Note
Şengün O 10.5 Rebounds	–115	Averaging 12.6; GSW allow 15.1 OREB% this series.
Curry O 3.5 3PM	–120	4.2 makes on 9.7 attempts; HOU concede 38.1 % catch-and-shoot.
VanVleet O 6.5 Assists	–110	7.4 AST when Amen Thompson shares the floor (extra driving kick target).

6. Best Bet & Prediction

Model projection: GSW 105 – HOU 101 (206 total)The number says Warriors ML is safest. If you need a side, Rockets +5 owns the slimmer margin‐of‐error given Houston’s superior efficiency and the likelihood this turns into another single-digit finish.

7. X-Factors to Monitor Tonight

Steven Adams’ minutes ceiling – his +19.1 NetRtg is massive, but he hasn’t cracked 23 minutes in the series.
Foul count on Dillon Brooks – Brooks has guarded Curry on 38 % of possessions; early fouls force smaller, switch-heavy line-ups that Curry feasts on.
Warriors’ second-unit shooting – Buddy Hield & Moses Moody are 10-for-36 from deep the last two; a positive regression flips the math fast.

The Edge Pick Slip

Warriors ML (-205) – ½ u
Şengün O 10.5 REB – 1 u
Game Over 203.5 – ½ u(“u” = standard unit; stake responsibly.)

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Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and enjoy the show.— Wegs Benedict