Tonight’s NBA Playoff Card — Model-Driven Breakdown & Betting Card 🏀💰
- Brandon Weger
- Apr 29
- 2 min read
(All odds shown were pulled Monday night from DraftKings’ Game-5 markets that you sent over: Pacers -7.5 / 224.5, Knicks -5.5 / 212.5, Celtics -12 / 200, Clippers -1.5 / 208.5).
1⃣ Methodology in plain English
Possession-based expectation
We start with each club’s playoff-only offensive & defensive ratings (points per 100 possessions) and pace (possessions per 48).
Expected points for a team =
(Its OffRtg + Opp DefRtg2)×Avg Pace100 \Bigl(\tfrac{\text{Its OffRtg + Opp DefRtg}}{2}\Bigr)\times\frac{\text{Avg Pace}}{100}
The difference of those two expected scores gives a model spread; their sum is our model total.
Edge calculation
Edge (points) = Model Total − Market Total (same for spreads).
A ≥ 3-point edge on totals or ≥ 4-point edge on sides triggers a wager for me.
Bankroll
1 “unit” = 1% of bankroll.
65 %+ model confidence → 1.5 units, 57-65 % → 1 unit, ≤ 57 % → pass/½ unit prop only.
You can inspect every number in the tables I shared above (“Model projections vs market” and “Target-odds parlays”) to follow the math line-by-line.
2⃣ Game-by-Game Reads
Key takeaways Indiana’s +16.6 projected margin is the night’s biggest – Giannis is a one-man show, but Milwaukee’s 120.2 DefRtg has been brutal. Boston should still win, but a 12-point cushion is rich against Orlando’s elite half-court defense; the sloggy 89-possession tempo screams under. Denver’s offense (106.1 OffRtg) nosedived this series. Model flips the market favourite to LAC and likes a rock-fight total.
3⃣ Prop Lean (½ u each)
Myles Turner O2.5 Blocks (+105) – Bucks have allowed 9.1 % of FGA at the rim contested this series.
Cade Cunningham O8.5 Assists (-120) – Usage intact, Knicks loading up on Cade drives.
4⃣ “Safe-ish” Parlays 📈
Built to stay between -120 and +150; decimal & American prices are in the interactive table.
Staking note: keep parlays to 0.5 units each – remember, correlation ≠ causation.
5⃣ Final Card
6⃣ Risk disclaimer
This is quant-driven analysis, not a guarantee. Market moves, late injury news, or minute-limit updates (keep an eye on Lillard & Holiday statuses) can swing edge percentages fast. Never risk more than you can afford to lose – and enjoy the basketball! 🏀
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