Tonight’s NBA Playoff Card — Model-Driven Breakdown & Betting Card 🏀💰

(All odds shown were pulled Monday night from DraftKings’ Game-5 markets that you sent over: Pacers -7.5 / 224.5, Knicks -5.5 / 212.5, Celtics -12 / 200, Clippers -1.5 / 208.5).

1⃣ Methodology in plain English

1. Possession-based expectation

   • We start with each club’s playoff-only offensive & defensive ratings (points per 100 possessions) and pace (possessions per 48).

   • Expected points for a team =

     (Its OffRtg + Opp DefRtg2)×Avg Pace100  \Bigl(\tfrac{\text{Its OffRtg + Opp DefRtg}}{2}\Bigr)\times\frac{\text{Avg Pace}}{100}

   • The difference of those two expected scores gives a model spread; their sum is our model total.

2. Edge calculation

   • Edge (points) = Model Total − Market Total (same for spreads).

   • A ≥ 3-point edge on totals or ≥ 4-point edge on sides triggers a wager for me.

3. Bankroll

   • 1 “unit” = 1% of bankroll.

   • 65 %+ model confidence → 1.5 units, 57-65 % → 1 unit, ≤ 57 % → pass/½ unit prop only.

You can inspect every number in the tables I shared above (“Model projections vs market” and “Target-odds parlays”) to follow the math line-by-line.

2⃣ Game-by-Game Reads

Match-up	Model Spread	Vegas Spread	Edge	Model Total	Vegas Total	Edge	Play
Bucks @ Pacers	-16.6 (IND)	-7.5	+9.1	225.6	224.5	+1.1	Pacers -7.5 (1.5 u)
Pistons @ Knicks	+0.6 (NYK)	-5.5	-4.9	212.6	212.5	+0.1	No side
Magic @ Celtics	+7.6 (BOS)	-12	-4.4	197.7	200	-2.3	Magic +12 (1 u); Under 200 (1 u)
Clippers @ Nuggets	+8.6 (LAC)	-1.5	+7.1	202.0	208.5	-6.5	Clippers -1.5 (1 u); Under 208.5 (1.5 u)

Key takeaways Indiana’s +16.6 projected margin is the night’s biggest – Giannis is a one-man show, but Milwaukee’s 120.2 DefRtg has been brutal. Boston should still win, but a 12-point cushion is rich against Orlando’s elite half-court defense; the sloggy 89-possession tempo screams under. Denver’s offense (106.1 OffRtg) nosedived this series. Model flips the market favourite to LAC and likes a rock-fight total.

3⃣ Prop Lean (½ u each)

• Myles Turner O2.5 Blocks (+105) – Bucks have allowed 9.1 % of FGA at the rim contested this series.

• Cade Cunningham O8.5 Assists (-120) – Usage intact, Knicks loading up on Cade drives.

4⃣ “Safe-ish” Parlays 📈

Built to stay between -120 and +150; decimal & American prices are in the interactive table.

Parlay	Legs	Est. Odds
A	Pacers ML • Clippers ML	+140
B	Celtics ML • Under 200.5 (ORL/BOS)	-105
C	Pacers ML • Celtics ML • Knicks ML	+112

Staking note: keep parlays to 0.5 units each – remember, correlation ≠ causation.

5⃣ Final Card

Wager	Odds	Units
Pacers -7.5	-110	1.5
Magic +12	-110	1
Celtics/Magic Under 200	-110	1
Clippers -1.5	-115	1
Clippers/Nuggets Under 208.5	-110	1.5
Parlay A	+140	0.5
Parlay B	+115	0.5
Parlay C	+110	0.5
Turner O2.5 BLK	+105	0.5
Cunningham O8.5 AST	-120	0.5

6⃣ Risk disclaimer

This is quant-driven analysis, not a guarantee. Market moves, late injury news, or minute-limit updates (keep an eye on Lillard & Holiday statuses) can swing edge percentages fast. Never risk more than you can afford to lose – and enjoy the basketball! 🏀